sexta-feira, 13 de maio de 2016

Com o que o Deutsche Bank está preocupado ? Com o aumento da inflação....e complementa: "Os mercados não estão preparados para esse risco crescente"

Com o que o Deutsche Bank está preocupado ? Com o aumento da inflação....

E complementa: "Os mercados não estão preparados para esse risco crescente"

Essa é a essência da matéria publicada no final do dia de hoje pelo "Marketwatch"

Vamos a ela:

Deutsche Bank thinks this is the biggest threat to the economy
By Sue Chang
Published: May 12, 2016 5:08 p.m. ET

Markets are not prepared to deal with this emerging risk

The Federal Reserve is trying to send the markets a message, but one Deutsche Bank economist says people are just not getting it — there is a looming threat to the economy and it’s not another recession or a crisis.

“Many clients I meet worry that the biggest macro risk on the horizon is another financial crisis,” said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist.

But the bigger threat, according to Slok, is accelerating inflation.

“This is what the Fed is trying to tell us when they repeatedly point out that we are near full employment,” he said.

Slok expects inflation to pick up in the coming months on the back of building wage pressure, but investors are mostly unprepared nor understand how it will impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

“Combining the upward pressure on wages with the ongoing depreciation of the dollar, I think we will continue to see upward pressure on core personal consumption expenditures over the coming quarters,” he said.

Wages have been ticking higher in recent months, with average wages up 0.3% to $25.53-an-hour in April, while hourly pay increased 2.5% in the past 12 months. Data also showed that the labor-force participation dropped for the first time since last fall to 62.8%.

The decline in the labor participation rate is likely to be a consistent trend in the foreseeable future due to aging demographics, leading to a tighter labor market, according to Michael Pearce, global economist at Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.8% year-over-year last month, following a 1% jump in March. The consumer price index edged up 0.1% in March, on a seasonally adjusted basis, after slipping 0.2% in February.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday that recent data support the Fed’s view that inflation will gradually accelerate over time, and noted that the PCE index rose 1% in the first quarter compared with 0.2% in the first quarter of last year.

Slok isn’t the only economist to sound the alarm on inflation.

Perma-bear Albert Edwards of Societe Generale likewise predicted that accelerated inflation is likely to force the Fed to resume its tightening cycle. But unlike Slok, Edwards believes this uptick in inflation is ephemeral and if the central bank does opt to hike rates, it will inevitably push the U.S. economy over the edge.

“They will, like Don Quixote, tilt their interest-rate lance at some imaginary inflation windmills, which merely represent temporary end-cycle phenomena, before a slump into outright deflation in the next recession,” he said in a note.