sexta-feira, 7 de julho de 2017

O site "Zero Hedge" volta a destacar o impacto de uma mudança na direção das taxas de juros americanas nas crises financeiras dos últimos 100 anos , questão levantada pelo Bank of America.....o Bank of America ressalta que as mudanças de direção são determinantes para instabilidades financeiras graves

O site "Zero Hedge" volta a destacar o impacto de uma mudança na direção das taxas de juros nas crises financeiras dos últimos 100 anos , questão levantada pelo Bank of America.....

O Bank of America faz questão de destacar que as mudanças de direção são determinantes para instabilidades financeiras graves

No gráfico abaixo, dentro do post publicado no "Zero Hedge" que passo a reproduzir mais abaixo, as marcações são feitas em "vermelho"




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-07/bofa-massive-market-inflection-point-coming-summer-will-lead-fall-crash

BofA: "Massive Market Inflection Point Coming This Summer: Will Lead To Fall Crash"

by Tyler Durden
Jul 7, 2017 12:05 PM

One week after BofA's Michael Hartnett became the latest strategist to admit the truth, when in his Flow Show report from last week he said that "central banks have exacerbated inequality via Wall St inflation & Main St deflation" and now that they are hoping to quickly and painlessly undo their error, there are "two ways to cure inequality...you can make the poor richer...or you can make the rich poorer..." concluding that the "Fed/ECB are now tightening to make Wall St poorer" because it is "no longer politically acceptable to stoke Wall St bubble", he has followed up with a note in which he looks at the vast change in the market landscape over the past year.

As he says, one year ago, July 11th, 2016, 30-year Treasury yield hit all-time low (2.14%), and Swiss government could have issued a 50-year bond at a negative yield (Chart 2 shows 10- year Swiss yield back to 1900).

One year later, 10-year bond yields up from 1.43% to 2.37% in the US, from -0.27% to 0.10% in Japan, and from -0.17% to 0.56% in Germany. Over the same period, global equity full float market cap rose $10.0tn to $76.3tn.

Then in a follow up from his recent report predicting when the Fed may be preparing to finally open the trapdoor beneath the market, the BofA analyst writes that over the next 6 months, higher interest rates likely be "much more negative for stocks & credit given new central bank policies"; tightening by the Fed, rhetorical tightening by ECB has already succeeded in raising bond yields, volatility, reducing tech stocks, he says as he urges clients to slowly step away from the exits.

And, when looking at near-term catalysts, he views the summer of 2017 as a "massive inflection point in central bank liquidity trade…will likely lead to “Humpty-Dumpty” big fall in market in autumn, in our view." The outcome of this global coordinated tightening, as he has shown below, will be a "financial event"