domingo, 12 de março de 2017

Mercados já discutem até mesmo 4 aumentos de taxas de juros nos EUA.....Sim....é o que diz a matéria no portal CNBC

Mercados já discutem até mesmo 4 aumentos de taxas de juros nos EUA.....Sim....é o que diz a matéria no portal CNBC

Abaixo, parte do texto, e a passagem destacada em que há uma clara discussão nesse sentido

Aqui, o texto completo: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/the-impact.html

We may soon know why the Fed changed its tune
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Friday, 10 Mar 2017 | 5:59 PM ET

By now, everyone knows the Fed wants to hike interest rates Wednesday, but what is not known is what central bank officials think about future rate increases this year.

Friday's strong jobs report was the whipped topping on a parfait of strong indicators for the Fed. In the coming week, February retail sales and the consumer price index will both be important, but the Fed already has above-trend job growth of roughly 235,000 in both January and February, and hourly wage gains of a respectable 2.8 percent.

The Fed is expected to raise the fed funds target range by a quarter point, which would put it between 75 basis points and 1 percent. That move would directly impact short-term borrowing costs, but the Fed's rate moves are like a domino effect and will send even longer-term rates higher. Those rates affect everything from car loans to mortgages, and commercial loans.

When the central bank unfurls it's new forecasts Wednesday, the market will be looking to see if there's an adjustment in its collective interest rate outlook, which now points to three quarter-point rate hikes this year. The market has looked skeptically at these forecasts since the Fed began 2016 with forecasts pointing to four hikes, and ended the year with just one rate rise in December.

But in recent weeks, Fed officials mobilized a campaign to tell the markets it's time to hike and they could move in March, while expectations were for a June rate increase and then possibly one other this year. The market got on board with a March hike and is warming up to three increases for 2017.

Now, with the Fed seeing fresh labor market strength and signs of inflation picking up, officials may feel even more confident about moving forward with the hiking cycle.

"I think the risk of four rate hikes went up dramatically," said Diane Swonk, CEO of DS Economics, after Friday's strong February jobs report. Hiring was broad-based and the biggest sector was construction with 58,000 new jobs. But even with the strong hiring, GDP in the first quarter looks sluggish, forecast at under 2 percent.