terça-feira, 28 de fevereiro de 2017

"Mesmo com ações dos mercados emergentes extremamente baratas, não vale a pena comprá-las...fiquem longe delas por conta de 4 grandes riscos na China, México e Brasil", diz Howard Gold, colunista do "MarketWatch"

"Mesmo com ações dos mercados emergentes extremamente baratas, não vale a pena comprá-las...

Fiquem longe delas por conta de 4 grandes riscos na China, México e Brasil", 

Basicamente, esse é o resumo do artigo escrito pelo colunista do "MarketWatch", Howard Gold, e publicado hoje no site do "MarketWatch"

O colunista começa o artigo explicando que, mesmo diante de uma relação de 12, segundo o "CAPE Ratio Shiller", ou "PE Shiller Ratio", que indica o atual estágio de "ganhos-lucros por ação" dos mercados emergentes, os mercados emergentes não estariam baratos.....

Isso mesmo, segundo ele,, se compararmos com o atual estágio de 28 para as maiores ações americanas, segundo o mesmo " PE Shiller Ratio".

Mas, por que 12 pra 28 não seria barato, segundo ele ?

Primeiro, segundo ele, os mercados emergentes ainda estão em um "Bear Market secular"....o recente rally, ainda segundo ele, ainda faz parte de um "Bear-Market secular"

Opss.....vamos dar uma pausa aqui .....

Notem que tal discussão é uma discussão que eu venho tentando colocar em debate já há algum tempo....o Bovespa ainda estaria em um "Bear-Market secular" ou não ? O atual rally ainda é uma perna de alta dentro de um grande "Bear-Market secular" ? Isto é......lembram daquele meu artigo em que exponho as quedas em dólar dos últimos 4 Bear Markets , incluindo o atual ?....2 deles, com quedas aproximadas de 80% em dólar, 1 de aproximadamente 90% e o atual, que, ao bater os 37.000 pontos no início de 2016, chegou a finalizar uma queda aproximada de 80% em dólar......

Se esse rally for ainda uma perna de alta, isto é,uma correção dentro de um "Bear-Market secular", ainda veremos uma queda acima de 80% em dólar desde o topo de maio-2008.....ou seja....ainda veremos um Bovespa ir abaixo dos 37.000 nos próximos 2-3-4 anos

Sigamos com o excelente artigo de Howard Gold

Mas, não apenas por estarem em mercados em "Bear-Market seculares"

Por conta de 4 grandes riscos à frente:

São eles:

1 - Segundo o autor, partindo do princípio que o FMI trabalha com um crescimento dos lucros das empresas dos mercados emergentes de 10% anuais para os próximos 5 anos,e 9% anuais para os lucros das empresas americanas para o mesmo período, a diferença não compensa, dada a forte volatilidade intrínseca dos mercados emergentes; esses seriam 50% mais voláteis do que outros mercados. Assim, o risco não compensa

2- Força do dólar que, historicamente, tende a enfraquecer o barril de petróleo e commodities em geral, importantes fontes de receita para os mercados emergentes; Rússia, Brasil e México, principalmente. O quadro seria mais delicado ainda se a dinâmica de 3 aumentos de taxa de juros americana se mostrar verdadeira para esse ano.

3 - Guerras Comerciais que podem se intensificar a partir da atual política industrial vislumbrada por Trump, onde uma visão nacionalista tende a enfraquecer players globais, em especial , aqueles dos mercados emergentes

4 - Por fim, o quarto grande risco responde pelo nome de "China"; mais especificamente, a instabilidade da China

Abaixo, o texto completo com os 4 grandes riscos muito claros


Opinion: Incredibly cheap emerging-markets stocks still aren’t worth buying
By Howard Gold
Published: Feb 28, 2017 10:00 a.m. ET

Stay away because there are four big risks in China, Mexico and Brazil, among other countries

Whenever markets underperform for years, some people go bottom fishing. It’s part of a natural human impulse to find bargains by buying low, being greedy when others are fearful, etc.

Lately we’ve seen that with emerging markets (EM), which have underperformed for years and which I have written are in a secular bear market.

The largest EM exchange traded fund, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO, -0.64% has outperformed the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.31%  since last February’s lows by 34% to 29%.

But since the election, VWO has risen only about 3%, trailing the S&P’s 10%-plus gain. That makes me think the latest emerging markets pseudo-rally (one of several in this secular bear market) is running out of steam.

Yet pundits and commentators are once again recommending emerging markets. According to Research Affiliates, emerging markets trade at a Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E, or CAPE, of only 12 times the last 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. U.S. large-cap stocks have an elevated Shiller P/E of 28. (Lately, the Shiller P/E has been too pessimistic about future U.S. stock returns.)

Yes, valuations of emerging markets look attractive. But though I’d like to buy again at some point, right now I’m staying away for four reasons.

1. EM earnings growth ain’t that great. Morningstar estimates earnings for emerging markets companies will grow at 10% annually for the next five years. The S&P 500, it projects, will grow 9% a year during that time. That’s not a big premium for markets that are roughly 50% more volatile.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has revised its GDP growth estimates down for major EM economies like Mexico, India and Brazil. The World Bank expects EM GDP growth to accelerate to 4.2% annually, from 3.4% in 2016, but worries that investment in these countries is at a multiyear low, which “can have insidious and corrosive results.”

Also, research by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School, among the world’s leading authorities on global equity returns, found little correlation between GDP growth and stock market returns. So, it’s a fallacy to buy EM stocks “because their economies are growing faster.”

2. The U.S. dollar should remain strong. If the Federal Reserve hikes the federal funds rate at least three times this year while other central banks stand pat or cut rates, how can the dollar not strengthen? And if President Donald Trump carries out the policy miracles his ardent followers expect (shredding regulations, cutting business and personal taxes, passing a big infrastructure package), inflation will pick up and the Fed would raise rates even faster, boosting the dollar more.

A stronger dollar is bad for oil and other commodities in which emerging markets specialize (Russia, Brazil and Mexico, for example). Greater dollar strength would likely clobber Latin America, which depends heavily on commodity exports and whose MSCI EM Latin America index surged 31.5% in 2016. Russia’s RTS index soared by more than 50% in dollar terms last year; it’s off 0.5% so far this year. These stocks have come a long way in a short time and are ripe for correction; greater strength in the dollar would do the trick.

3. Trade wars would hurt emerging markets most. Wall Street is betting heavily on the “good” Trump prevailing, he of the tax cuts and fiscal stimulus. But what happens when the “bad” Trump shows up? Border walls, mass deportations, and punitive tariffs play well in the heartland, where his supporters actually think he’ll bring back the well-paying manufacturing jobs of the 1950s.

But stiff tariffs and trade wars would hit emerging markets particularly hard, especially China and Mexico, the top two exporters to the U.S. We might tip into recession, too, but there’d be absolute carnage in emerging market economies and markets.

4. China’s economy is shaky. China may be the world’s second-largest economy, and it’s the biggest emerging market, so what happens there profoundly affects emerging market economies and stocks.

But China, which posted 10% annual GDP increases in the mid-2000s, could see growth drop to the IMF’s projected 6.5% this year and 6% in 2018. Meanwhile, the country’s debt load is enormous, and its real estate may be in “the biggest bubble in history.”

As 2015’s stock market melt-up and crash showed clearly, China is a rigged market utterly lacking in transparency and manipulated by the government. No investor should trust it. And yet leading providers are considering boosting China’s weighting in the big EM indexes, which means that more than ever, buying emerging-markets ETFs means buying China.

I’ll wait for the indexers to come to their senses. Until then, which may be a while, investing in broad global index ETFs that already have nearly 20% of their assets in emerging markets or in U.S. multinationals that get lots of revenue from emerging markets will be good enough for me.

Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist and founder and editor of GoldenEgg Investing, which offers exclusive market commentary and simple, low-cost, low-risk retirement investing plans. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold.