terça-feira, 10 de janeiro de 2017

O site "Marketwatch" publica um artigo onde diz: "Se você comprou o boato Trump, venda no fato".......eu pergunto: "Isso vale para as commodities também, pelo muro de aço, etc ?"

O site "Marketwatch" publica um artigo onde diz:

 "Se você comprou o boato Trump, venda no fato"

Essa seria a tradução mais próxima do velho "compre no boato e venda no fato", que todos conhecemos

Ou seja.....vários mercados subiram forte após a eleição americana, e agora, a partir do próximo dia 20, quando Trump assume, seria hora de vender tudo

Agora, eu pergunto:

 "Isso vale para as commodities também ?"

Afinal, venderam de tudo, após a vitória de Trump.......desde a já proposta inicial de Donald Trump de construir um muro de aço na fronteira com o México, idéia "pra lá de polêmica", até o investimento "trilhardário" em infra-estrutura, como se os Estados Unidos precisassem urgentemente de toda uma refundação da infra-estrutura , assim como pudéssemos ver o Congresso autorizar fácil e solenemente a "gastança de Trump"

E, então ?

Vamos ao artigo:


Opinion: If you bought the Trump rumor, now it’s time to sell the news
By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 10, 2017 8:55 a.m. ET
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The next two months will show why we should “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

The “rumor” in this case was the speculation about what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for the economy. The “news” will kick in on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.

Contrarian analysis provides the reason to sell that news: The widespread skepticism of early November has been replaced by pervasive optimism, if not exuberance.

Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term Nasdaq-oriented stock market timers who I monitor on a regular basis (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). Since the Nasdaq responds especially quickly to changes in investor mood, and because those timers themselves are quick to shift their recommended exposure levels, the HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of investor sentiment.

In the immediate wake of Trump’s election, this average dropped to minus 27.8%. That meant the typical short-term Nasdaq-oriented market timer was recommending that clients allocate more than a quarter of their equity portfolios to going short, an aggressive bet that the stock market would continue to decline.

As I noted in my column at the time, that meant that the path of least resistance for the stock market was up. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.36%  today is nearly 10% higher than it was in early November. The S&P 500 Index SPX, +0.00%  is up about 9%.

Today, in contrast, the HNNSI stands at 77.8%, more than 100 percentage points higher. That stampede to the bullish camp is why it’s a safe contrarian bet that the market’s performance over the next two months will be less impressive than it was over the past two months — if it’s up at all.

Notice from the accompanying chart that, since the beginning of last year, the Nasdaq Composite on average has produced a two-month loss following HNNSI readings as high as today’s. (Though this chart doesn’t include years before 2016, prior years’ experience adheres to this same pattern.)

To be sure, it goes against human nature for you to take money off the table just as you’re on a winning streak. In fact, with the market at new all-time highs, lightening your exposure will be as difficult as it was to step up to the plate and buy equities on the Wednesday morning following Election Day.

But, as Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has famously put it: “You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy.”

And right now, the mood on Wall Street is far closer to the greed end of the spectrum.

For more information, including descriptions of the Hulbert Sentiment Indices, go to www.hulbertratings.com or email mark@hulbertratings.com.