quinta-feira, 1 de dezembro de 2016

Operar papéis da Vale virou "puro cassino"...não tenho nenhuma dúvida disso.....como papéis da empresa podem oscilar a base de um ativo (seu principal produto) que oscila 10% pra cima e pra baixo todo dia ?.. Vamos às palavras de Tiger Shi, gerente da corretora BANDS Financial Ltda sobre os preços do minério de ferro em matéria da Bloomberg: "Não há dúvida que os preços e volumes estão sendo dirigidos pelos chineses e por especuladores profissionais"

Vale virou "puro cassino"...não tenho nenhuma dúvida disso.....como papéis da empresa podem oscilar a base de um ativo (seu principal produto) que oscila 10% pra cima e pra baixo todo dia ?..

E não por uma simples demanda adequada ao preço do respectivo ativo ?

O renomado Site ZeroHedge levantou uma matéria da Bloomberg ontem à  noite ressaltando alguns aspectos do que pode estar ocorrendo nos mercados chineses de minério de ferro

Primeiro, antes de tudo, é preciso esclarecer um ponto fundamental...

Essencialmente, e, em grande parte, os preços do minério de ferro têm como referências os preços praticados nos portos chineses, principal zona de compra-demanda.

Não é como outras commodities metálicas ou "metais-preciosos", cujos preços, essencialmente, têm como referência mercados futuros americanos

A matéria da Bloomberg é longa.....

Reproduzirei parte dela....o texto completo está no link abaixo......mas, antes de tudo, ressalto o parágrafo que coloquei no titulo do post......parte em português (traduzido por mim) e o parágrafo todo em inglês:


"Não há dúvida que os preços e volumes estão sendo dirigidos pelos chineses e por especuladores profissionais"

“There is no doubt that the price moves and the bigger volumes worldwide are being driven by the Chinese, and by professional speculators and financial players,” said Tiger Shi, managing partner at brokerage BANDS Financial Ltd., which counts several of those funds as clients. “The western hedge funds and institutional investors don’t really know what’s going on. Often they were used to trading macro factors or Fed policy, but now they find they have fewer advantages.”"


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Vejam a passagem em relação aos algoritmos e às operações "feitas à noite".....ressaltada por mim

Vamos a ela:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/metals-traders-red-alert-chinese-commodity-bubble-20-just-imploded

"Metals Traders On Red Alert" - Chinese Commodity Bubble 2.0 Just Imploded
by Tyler Durden
Nov 30, 2016 8:35 PM

Industrial metals commodity prices plunged by the most since March in the last 2 days as China’s exchanges (once again) clamped down on speculation by tightening trading rules. As Bloomberg reports, for the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.

Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating.

“I can recall only two other occasions in my career where there was such panic and devastating price action in copper but this market today is far less transparent,”

While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds. They’re chasing better returns in commodities as stocks and real estate fade, often using algorithms and trading late into the night, when markets in London and New York are most active.

“There is no doubt that the price moves and the bigger volumes worldwide are being driven by the Chinese, and by professional speculators and financial players,” said Tiger Shi, managing partner at brokerage BANDS Financial Ltd., which counts several of those funds as clients. “The western hedge funds and institutional investors don’t really know what’s going on. Often they were used to trading macro factors or Fed policy, but now they find they have fewer advantages.”
And it was never going to end well...

Think it's the Trump-Trade? Think again. Fundamentally, as Bloomberg highlights, there is massive oversupply. Iron ore port inventories in China are near the highest since September 2014 and are up 19 percent this year, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. Top producer Vale SA reiterated its output guidance of 360 million to 380 million tons for 2017 on Tuesday and expects to produce 400 million to 420 million tons the year after.

So what is it? What had driven this panic-buying in industrial commodities? Simple - another Chinese speculative bubble...

Iron ore and steel futures trimmed their second monthly advance as bourses in Dalian and Shanghai moved to deflate a boom driven partly by speculative trading.

The Dalian Commodity Exchange raised margin requirements and the Shanghai Futures Exchange capped some positions. These measures have taken some speculative steam out of the market, according to Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp.

As the Chinese commodity bubble of March/April is back and trading volumes explode relative to open interest...