terça-feira, 15 de novembro de 2016

O Tempo passa e a reflexão dá lugar a irracionalidade....ou a especulação mesmo....cassino mesmo............"Donald Trump pode ameaçar a demanda por minério de ferro na China", por Financial Review

O Tempo passa e a reflexão dá lugar a irracionalidade....ou a especulação mesmo....cassino mesmo............

Manchete do Financial Review de hoje:

"Donald Trump pode ameaçar a demanda por minério de ferro na China"

Vamos ao texto:


Nov 15 2016 at 3:43 PM  Updated Nov 15 2016 at 5:26 PM 
Donald Trump could threaten China's iron ore demand

Despite the on-again, off-again market enthusiasm about the economic impact of a Trump presidency promising a massive infrastructure build, it's still China that will determine the price of commodities over 2017. That's been the good news story of 2016.

But after so much gloom hanging over Australia's terms of trade for so long, the market remains suspicious of how long the recent surge in iron ore prices in particular can last.

Treasurer Scott Morrison will certainly be hoping it's long enough to get through his budget update next month given the recent price rise makes his own figures look so much healthier.

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of its November 1 meeting released Tuesday happily observed that bulk commodity prices had increased significantly since the beginning of 2016.

"Consequently, the terms of trade had risen for the first time in two and a half years and had been revised higher over the forecast period," the minutes said. Caution about the future is still dominant.

"Members noted, however, that there was significant uncertainty about the outlook for the terms of trade, partly because of uncertainty about the outlook for the Chinese economy," the minutes continued.

Then add in the constant volatility of trading and the combination of re-stocking, de-stocking and speculation affecting the iron ore market in China.

Fortescue CEO Nev Power jokes he always finds it so much easier to predict the past than the future. He still thinks there's no fundamental change to the supply-demand equation for iron ore from China and that the recent price increase is more of a short-term market fluctuation.

So he expects that recent prices of around $US80 a tonne will quickly return to oscillating between $US40 and $US60 a tonne that has been the average range for around the last 18 months or so. That's still quite a big range, of course. Whether it is closer to the top or the bottom also dramatically affects the profitability of the iron ore producers as well as their share prices.

As they continue to slash costs, the mood among miners is clearly much brighter than it was last January when the price fell to just under $US40 a tonne. It's still a big shift down from the $US130 boom-time average of 2012 and 2013 that did so much to boost the Australian economy.

But for FMG, it all still signals a period of relative stability in both the iron ore price and the outlook for the Chinese economy over the next year. Power expects growth to be "steady as she goes" with no major policy changes in the lead up to the next party congress late next year marking the end of Xi Jinping's first five year term.

Confidence in Chinese demand for steel production continuing at around 800 million tonnes a year was also shored up by last month's meeting of senior party officials. Despite the regular expressions of market nervousness about the sustainability of growing debt levels in the Chinese economy, the clear commitment from the leadership is to maintain stable growth at around 6.5 per cent along with the investment necessary to underpin that.

According to Power's assessment, recent price movements for iron ore have more reflected a re-stocking at steel mills after stockpiles had been reduced, compounded by traders and other intermediaries holding back supply as prices started to rise. The same effect will work in reverse as stockpiles are rebuilt and prices start to decline again, no doubt exacerbated by the volatility inherent in speculative iron ore trading on the Dalian Futures Exchange.

But he sees this as just part of a now familiar market pattern of the last few years.

Such familiar patterns could still all be overturned by any move by Trump to fulfil his campaign promises on China – such as imposing 45 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports - after he takes office in January.

An editorial in China's Global Times pointed out that there would be a tit-for-tat response and trade between the two countries would be "paralysed" if this occurred.

"Trump, coming from a business background, is very astute," the publication said. "We do not believe he will treat China US trade so childishly."

The whole world will be waiting to see just how that works out.

But the shift in Trump's tone post-election indicates the risks look less likely given potential damage to the US economy

After a polite phone call between the two leaders, Trump's transition team issued a statement saying that a "clear sense of mutual respect for one another" had been established. No doubt that will be regularly tested. As will market nerves over the iron ore price.