quarta-feira, 9 de novembro de 2016

"O que os analistas do UBS, HSBC, Deutsche Bank , Fidelity e Morgan dizem sobre o Presidente Trump" por Business Insider

Abaixo, matéria da Business Insider sobre algumas análises de grandes bancos internacionais sobre o novo Presidente dos EUA , Donald Trump

Resumi 3 análises destacadas abaixo:  HSBC, Deutsche Bank e Fidelity...

Crédito : Business Insider

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What analysts at UBS, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, and more say about President Trump

Oscar Williams-Grut 


Republican Donald Trump has shocked the world by becoming the 45th President of the United States.

The result has left financial markets reeling around the world with most pricing in a win for Democrat Hilary Clinton, who had a projected slim lead going into the vote.

Stock markets are now tanking and currencies are jumping against the dollar.

Analysts at investment banks are beginning to react to the shock victory, exploring what it will mean for global stock and currencies markets.

Here's what they think is about to happen:

HSBC: 'This is a potentially game changing result'

Chief US economist Kevin Logan says: "We would expect a Trump Presidency to lead to major changes in federal fiscal policy, with lower taxes, higher deficits, restrictions on trade and the international flow of capital, and potentially a sizable reduction in the labor force if Trump's deportation plans are put into effect." (You can read more on Logan's view here.)

HSBC's US head of FX strategy Daragh Maher says: "The risk-off knee-jerk reaction to a possible Trump victory is already underway. It is likely to be sizable and to persist for some time as the market scrambles to digest what would be a surprising and game-changing result.

"The degree of FX impact from this potential election result hinges on whether Trump delivers on the bulk of his campaign promises. This may not be the case but the market will have to price in some possibility that each component would materialise. These probabilities will shift over time, depending on Trump's rhetoric and the degree of support coming from a Republican-dominated Congress.

"In the end, this is a potentially game changing result for the FX market and quite possibly gold. The near-term price action would be dominated by the risk off mood, heightened volatility and uncertainty. The medium-term implications would be determined by the pace and scale of policy implementation by the Trump administration."

Deutsche Bank: 'It will reinforce the backlash against globalisation'

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid says: "A Trump win is likely to be viewed negatively across a wide range of assets in the short-term but the range of medium-term outcomes are much wider. It increases the chance of higher fiscal spending but it will also reinforce the backlash against globalisation and associated forces of which migration policy and trade are obviously likely to be heavily scrutinised.

"So as the trend is already pointing to, expect lower risk assets at first, lower bond yields on a flight to quality but then higher yields once his spending plans are digested and an equity market that might at some point benefit from reflationary policies but with greater risks (lower trade and global openness) and higher volatility.

"It's very easy to say this is a big negative for the global economy but current policies around the world are perpetuating the soporific post-GFC [global financial crisis] recovery. A shake up is badly needed but whether Trump is the right version of the shake up is open to debate."

Fidelity: 'Calls into question the pillars of the post-WWII settlement'

Dominic Rossi, Fidelity International's Global CIO of Equities, says: "We are heading into a world of unprecedented political risk which calls into question the pillars of the post-WWII settlement. It’s unsurprising investors are heading for cover.

"The immediate sense of bewilderment at the shift rightwards in American politics will need to give way to a more sober risk assessment. The immediate impact will be on the Fed. The probability of a hike in interest rates in Dec, followed by two further hikes 2017, has fallen sharply. The dollar which has been trending higher in anticipation, has consequently reversed. Both were threats to the bull market, and these have now been postponed. Monetary policy will remain accommodative.

"However, these known financial risks have been displaced by an unprecedented level of unknown political risks. We can only speculate whether Trump will follow through on his more protectionist slogans with substantive policies. Investors, particularly those overseas, will stand back and wait."