segunda-feira, 26 de setembro de 2016

Ken Rogoff, co-autor do livro "Oito séculos de delírios financeiros", e Professor de Economia na Harvard University, avisa em entrevista a BBC que o ""hard landing" na China é hoje a maior ameaça a economia mundial...mais....diz ele: o "hard landing é iminente"...

Ken Rogoff, co-autor do livro "Oito séculos de delírios financeiros", e  Professor de Economia na Harvard University,  avisa, em entrevista a BBC:

"Esqueçam o Brexit, as eleições americanas e a queda do preço do petróleo...a maior ameaça hoje para a economia mundial vem da China"

Ele se refere ao "hard landing" da China..

Mais....

Diz ele: o "hard landing é iminente"...

Aqui, trecho da matéria: 

"In an interview with the BBC, Rogoff said a “hard landing” for the world’s second largest economy is imminent and there’s little other countries can do to prepare for it."

Matéria completa abaixo, crédito "Marketwatch"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rogoff-warns-hard-landing-in-china-poses-biggest-threat-to-global-economy-2016-09-26


Rogoff warns ‘hard landing’ in China poses biggest threat to global economy
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Sept 26, 2016 5:16 a.m. ET

Forget about Brexit, forget about the U.S. election and forget about the struggling oil market: The biggest risk to the global economy comes from China, where a looming credit bubble is threatening to dramatically slow economic growth, according to Ken Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

In an interview with the BBC, Rogoff said a “hard landing” for the world’s second largest economy is imminent and there’s little other countries can do to prepare for it.

“There’s no question, China is the biggest risk. China has been the engine of global growth that’s been working,” he said in the interview, published Monday.

“We are having a pretty sharp landing already, and I worry about China becoming more of a problem. We’ve taken it for granted that whatever Europe’s doing, Japan’s doing, at least China is moving along. And there isn’t really a substitute for China. ” he added.

China’s gross domestic product expanded by 6.7% in the second quarter, slightly better than the 6.6% expected by economists. However, it was still down from the 6.9% growth seen in 2015, which was already the slowest in 25 years.

A big part of the problem is the country’s debt bubble, which could create waves of financial jitters globally if it bursts. The Bank for International Settlements said last week China’s credit-to-GDP gap now stands at 30.1%, which BIS sees as a “reliable early warning indicator of banking crises or severe distress.”

The rapid credit growth in China was also noted by the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Committee, saying it was “very high by international standards”. The committee will assess British bank’s exposure to China in its stress tests, due for release in November.

“They’ve seen credit-fuelled growth and these things don’t go on forever. Everyone says China is different, the state owns everything, they can control it. But only to a point,” Rogoff, now Professor of Economics at Harvard, said in the BBC interview.

“I think the economy has slowed down a lot more than the official figures show, and if you want to look at part of the world that has a debt problem, look at China,” he added.

Rogoff isn’t alone in questioning China’s official GDP figures. Perma-bear Marc Faber in January put the country’s 2015 growth number at about 4%, also citing concerns about its “colossal debt bubble” as well as slowing exports.

So what can the rest of the world do to prepare for China’s anticipated hard landing?

“Ideally you’d like to generate growth and be more on your feet when this happens... You’d like the rest of the world not to be dependent on China so much,” Rogoff said.

But “there are limits to what you can do when a country that big is slowing down,” he warned.