quarta-feira, 24 de agosto de 2016

"Por que Portugal pode ser o próximo desastre econômico europeu ?", por Sara Sjolin, no Marketwatch

"Por que Portugal pode ser o próximo desastre econômico europeu ?"

Esse é o título da matéria escrito e publicado por Sara Sjolin, no Marketwatch hoje

Vamos a alguns trechos:

Link completo em : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-portugal-could-be-europes-next-economic-disaster-2016-08-24

Why Portugal could be Europe’s next economic disaster

By Sara Sjolin
Published: Aug 24, 2016 10:09 a.m. ET

First it was Brexit, then it was the Italian banking sector, and now it’s Portugal’s surprisingly slow growth that’s threatening the stability of Europe’s financial system this summer.

Over the past few weeks, fears have mounted that the country’s weak economy will prompt a credit ratings downgrade, making Portuguese bonds ineligible for the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program. Those jitters have pushed up the yields on Portuguese government paper, with the yield on 10-year debt TMBMKPT-10Y, -1.50%  jumping above 3% this week. That’s up from around 2.3% less than a year ago.

“The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields [this month] reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating,” said Jack Allen, European economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

Concerns over Portugal’s lackluster economy took off earlier in August when ratings agency DBRS hinted the country could lose its investment grade credit rating at the next review in October. In an interview with Reuters, head of sovereign ratings at DBRS Fergus McCormick said “pressures appear to be mounting” in Portugal after second-quarter gross domestic product printed at a disappointing 0.2%.


“We still expect Portugal to escape that fate. But the risk is serious,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, in a note.

Bad luck and homegrown problems

So where did it all go wrong for Portugal? Part of it the problem is bad luck and part of it is homegrown, Schmieding said.

The collapse in oil prices hit Angola hard, which had turned into Portugal’s fourth largest export partner by late 2014. In the first half of 2016 alone, Portuguese exports to Angola fell by 42%, according to Fitch Ratings.

Additionally, the socialist minority government that came to power in November 2015 raised the minimum wage, increased the number of public holidays and reversed some key reforms, all which could make it harder for the country to meet its EU fiscal targets.


“To avoid conflict with the EC and minimize the risk of a rating downgrade, the government will need to announce new austerity measures,” said Allen from Capital Economics.

“Accordingly, the EC told the government to announce extra cuts worth 0.25% of GDP this year. If this were achieved, DBRS might maintain Portugal’s investment-grade rating,” he said.