sábado, 23 de julho de 2016

"O que esperar do FED semana que vem", por Marketwatch

Do site "Marketatch", publicado ontem:

Título: "O que esperar do FED semana que vem"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-in-the-fed-statement-next-week-2016-07-22

What to expect in the Fed statement next week

By Greg Robb
Published: July 22, 2016 2:16 p.m. ET
Greater chance any September rate hike signaling would come in minutes

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week and refrain from signaling about a possible September rate hike due to continued uncertainty about the outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.

The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Because Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will not hold a press conference, all eyes are on the policy statement to be released at 2 p.m. after the talks conclude.

The Fed hiked rates last December but has refrained from moving ever since, unsure about the financial market turmoil at the beginning of the year, the lackluster growth in the first quarter. This caution was compounded by the decision late last month by U.K. voters to leave the European Union.

“I’m not sure they’re quite ready to signal the coast is clear,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for J.P. Morgan Chase.

The Fed statement “won’t rock the boat, he added.

“Though the data and backdrop have improved...downside risks remain and the outlook is uncertain, said Michael Hanson, senior global economist at Bank of America, in New York.

The big debate among Fed watchers is whether the U.S. central bank will find some way to signal that it is inching closer to a rate hike at its next meeting on the two-day meeting ending Sept. 21.

Over the last six weeks, many Fed officials said they remain open to raising rates this year, which most analysts said was most likely to come in December.

Read: Flood of Fed speeches point to December interest-rate hike

The statement is not expected to include explicit language pointing to September.

Bank of America’s Hanson said there is a “greater chance” that the minutes will sound more upbeat on the potential for a September rate hike, much as the April minutes did to signal the potential for a rate increase in June, which ultimately didn’t happen.

The July minutes will be released on Aug. 17.

At the moment, futures markets still think a September rate hike is unlikely.

Fed fund futures, used by investors to bet on the timing of Fed rate hikes, were pricing in only a 19.8% chance of a rate hike in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The odds rise to 40% at the December meeting.

Lacking any explicit statement, any signal will be in the eye of the beholder, Feroli noted.

The Fed policy statement is likely to say that the U.S. labor market is on better footing than it did in the last statement in June.

Hanson said the statement might cite “cumulative progress” toward its goal of full employment and steady inflation.

In its prior statement in June, after a dismal May job report, the Fed said “job gains have diminished.”

The Fed will likely stick to “pretty minor changes,” Feroli said.