quinta-feira, 16 de junho de 2016

Morgan Stanley receia que os erros dos anos 30, ao longo da Grande Depressão, estejam se repetindo, por "Marketwatch"

Excelente matéria publicada no final da tarde pelo "marketwatch"

Essencialmente, a matéria lista alguns dos pontos atuais que podem reviver, isto é, moldar o mesmo quadro da Grande Depressão dos anos 30......a saber......deflação, alto endividamento, baixo crescimento e baixos yields

Vamos a ela:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-fears-policy-makers-repeating-mistakes-of-1930s-2016-06-16

Morgan Stanley fears policy makers repeating mistakes of 1930s

By Sue Chang
Published: June 16, 2016 3:57 p.m. ET

Policy makers are repeating the types of mistakes that prolonged the Great Depression, economists at Morgan Stanley warned Thursday.

High debt, deflation, slower growth and lower yields on top of policy missteps have often been identified as the prime culprits for extending the Great Depression in the 1930s.

“We think that the current macroeconomic environment has a number of significant similarities with the 1930s,” said a team led by Chetan Ahya, global co-head of economics at the firm.

“The critical similarity between the 1930s and the 2008 cycle is that the financial shock and the relatively high levels of indebtedness changed the risk attitudes of the private sector and triggered them to repair their balance sheets,” Ahya said.

Widespread risk aversion is in play today, as evidenced by a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey which showed investors hoarding cash at a nearly 15-year high. The preference for safer assets, in turn, has pushed government bond yields into negative territory with the 10-year German bond TMBMKDE-10Y, +0.00%  yielding minus 0.04%, a fresh record low.

The economist, who blamed accelerated tightening of the monetary policy in 1936 to 1937 for the double dip of the U.S. economy that led to the recession in 1938, also believes that the Fed’s move to tighten monetary policy late last year is a key reason for the recent slowdown in growth.

In early 2015, Wall Street bigshots like Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates also made comparisons to the Fed’s 1937 tightening as they urged the U.S. central bank to err on the side of caution and delay increasing rates on fears that a tighter policy could derail the U.S. economic rebound.

In December, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years and indicated more hikes are likely this year due to steady signs of economic recovery. Since then, however, Chairwoman Janet Yellen has toned down her rhetoric on concerns that a prolonged global sluggishness will drag down the U.S. economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left rates unchanged and said it would take a more moderate approach to tightening monetary policy due to anemic corporate investments and uncertainties stemming from the looming U.K. vote on its membership in the European Union.

“The risk of a global recession—i.e., full-year growth of below 2.5%—remains elevated at this stage,” said Ayah, who blamed debt, demographics, and disinflation for the economic malaise. “Out of the top 10 developing markets and emerging markets, 15 of them have a rising age dependency ratio, 14 have debt/GDP close to or above 200%, and inflation is subdued in 16 of them.”

As a remedy, Ahya urged officials to deploy fiscal policies to prevent a slide into recession, given the impotency of easy monetary policy.

“Activating fiscal policy, particularly at a time when the monetary policy stance is still accommodative, could lead to a virtuous cycle where the corporate sector takes up private investment, and sustains job creation and income growth,” he said.